📚 20 Books for 20 Problems, How to Find Time to Read, and more.

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👋 Hey everyone,

Here are a few popular posts you may have missed:

• 20 Books for 20 Problems.

• Novelist Louis L’Amour on how to find time to read.

• Reading books can help you live longer. Here are 5 studies that show how.

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📚 Book Summary:

This week’s book is “The Great Mental Models” by Shane Parrish.

This book is filled with several mental models, AKA frameworks for making better decisions. Mental models help you see decisions from different perspectives, avoid common pitfalls, and increase your chances of making smart choices.

If you want to make decisions more effectively, quickly, and confidently, this book is for you.

Here are 3 lessons from the book:

📖

1) Practice Second-Order Thinking

Almost anyone can predict the results of their actions–however, few people think about what happens next.

That’s where second-order thinking comes in.

It requires us to think about the consequences and aftereffects that those actions will have.

Failing to consider aftereffects can cause several new problems.

One famous example is what happened in India in the 1880s.

At the time, India was ruled by the British, who were concerned about the number of venomous cobras in Delhi.

To reduce the cobra population, the British government introduced a reward for every dead snake brought to officials.

However, many Indian citizens began breeding the snakes in order to kill them and claim their reward.

Once the government learned about this scheme, they canceled the reward. With no incentive to keep the cobras, breeders released the snakes into the wild.

As a result, the snake problem became worse than when the government first intervened. Because the British officials didn’t think about the aftereffects of their actions, their solution to a problem resulted in an even bigger problem.

So think chess, not checkers.

Just like a chess master thinks several moves ahead about a single decision and imagines what will happen next depending on each move, you want to do the same.

📖

2) If You Don’t Know What To Do Next, Try Inversion

Even when you don’t know what the right move is, you almost always know what the wrong move is.

For instance, perhaps you don’t know what leads to a good night’s sleep. But you for sure know that eating a massive meal and drinking a large cup of coffee before bed is a terrible idea.

Simply avoiding those two actions will dramatically improve your quality of sleep.

That’s inversion.

When you don’t know what the right step is, ask yourself, “What’s the wrong step?” and do the opposite of that.

The late, great investor Charlie Munger was a huge fan of inversion.

In one of his last interviews, Munger commented that one of the keys to his success was avoiding common traps such as being unreliable, not learning from the mistakes of others, and staying down after failing.

By doing the opposite–being reliable, learning from others, and not quitting–he was able to amass a billion-dollar fortune and build one of the most valuable companies in the world.

So the next time you’re grappling with a difficult problem, try inverting your thinking.

Ask yourself what actions would guarantee failure, and then consider doing the opposite.

📖

3) Hanlon’s Razor: Most People Aren’t Evil, Just Stupid

Hanlon’s razor states that we should not attribute to malice that which is more easily explained by stupidity.

Or to put it simply, people are more likely to do harm by accident than by evil.

In a complex world, using this model helps us avoid paranoia, accusations, and other negative reactions.

Take road rage as an example.

When someone cuts you off, you might assume the person was deliberately trying to get in your way, push you to the side of the road, or cause an accident to try to claim insurance money.

But the simpler and more likely explanation is that the person didn’t see you. There was no ill intent; it was just a mistake on their part.

Hanlon’s razor empowers us to be more realistic in evaluating the situation and stops us from immediately reacting with a negative response.

In 1962, if Vasili Arkhipov had reacted wrongly, the entire world could have ended.

At the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, American destroyers and Soviet submarines were in a standoff in the waters off Cuba.

Arkhipov was an officer aboard Soviet sub B-59–a sub that was carrying a nuclear weapon.

The sub detected something on its radar and assumed the worst. Convinced that war had broken out, the captain of the sub wanted to deploy their nuclear-tipped torpedo.

Luckily, the launch of the torpedo required all three senior officers on board to agree, but Arkhipov didn’t. Instead of assuming malice, he stayed calm and insisted on surfacing to contact Moscow first.

The submarine surfaced and learned that the Americans hadn’t attacked.

Arkhipov wasn’t hailed as a hero until the record was declassified 40 years later.

Hanlon’s razor is a powerful reminder to approach problems with good faith and explore other motives instead of immediately responding with anger or accusations.

Doing so will help you reduce the drama and stress in your life and prevent you from falsely blaming or hurting others.

✅ Actionable Advice:

1) Second-Order Thinking: Before making a decision, think about what will happen after you make it and the actions that will follow from it.

• Example: If you’re thinking about buying an expensive car because you think you can afford it, think about what will happen next after you buy it (insurance will probably cost more, parts for repairs will cost more, premium gas will cost more, etc).

2) Inversion: If you don’t know what to do next, think about what the worst action would be and do the opposite.

• Example: If you want to lose weight but don’t know where to start, think about ways to gain weight (drink soda, eat fast food, eat lots of sweets) and do the opposite (avoid soda, avoid fast food, avoid sweets).

3) Hanlon’s Razor: Assume people aren’t out to get or hurt you, but rather their actions are accidental.

• Example: If your boss didn’t approve your vacation time, it’s not because they hate you or look down on you for taking a vacation, they might have just had a busy week and forgotten about it.

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Alex W.